ROTARY: Living with Covid
Message from PIRP K.R. "Ravi" Ravindran, during the November Synergy Asia Meeting (Transcript)
Thank you, DGN Jothi, for your very, very generous words of introduction. May I also greet Director Jesse Harman and our friends Past Governor Oyan and DG Willie. I can see Sunil is somewhere around here the key force behind this very novel synergy friendship, Alliance. It's going from strength to strength, that I can say.
The world and Rotary have gone through perhaps its most harrowed period of possibly this whole generation and ravaged as we are by the Coronavirus - which has wreaked havoc on the global economy appending entire industries and leaving scores of people around the world without work and in many places, even without food.
If I have to talk to a business crowd, I would tell you that in economic numbers, the cost of COVID-19, calculated up to 2021 December, will amount to $10.3 trillion. That is, to put it mildly, a very, very large number to look at, to show you in retrospect, or in a competitive manner. Only the United States and China have an annual GDP greater than $10 trillion. And if you put 153 economies that produce less, even if you add all of them together, it doesn't equal the losses we have sustaine
Over 5 million have died, and that, my friends, is a very conservative figure. The Economist magazine puts the real figure at around 16 million. The world economy probably shrank about 4.3% in 2020, a setback matched only by the Great Depression and the two World Wars. The world has experienced pandemics before. I mean, this is not the first time, the cholera outbreak in the 1830s, the Russian flu of the 19th century, the Spanish flu that struck in 1980 and killed over 50 million people as examples. But in the end, all pandemics will burn out. Eventually, sufficient numbers of people developed immunity. So, viruses can no longer find new hosts at the rate they need to sustain their growt
At that point, it becomes what is called “Endemic,” which means it will circulate and be persistent but at low risks through a region at manageable levels. Having said that, we will have surprises. The World Health Organization (WHO) has declared a new Coronavirus variant to be of concern and named it “Omicron.” The concerns of “Omicron” were indeed many. The biggest is that it may have the ability to spread more easily than “Delta,” which, as you know, costs us enough trouble. The variant “Delta” is the variant that dominates cases of COVID around the world today. If so, “Omicron” could supplant the entire (world) within months. In that case, “Omicron” would cause bigger outbreaks that flare up faster than “Delta” and are harder to stop.
Another worry is that today's vaccines and drugs against COVID may be less potent against “Omicron” and may therefore need to be redesigned. In the coming days and decisions from the “WHO”, we will be closely watching for any broader spread. At a minimum, however, it's yet another reminder that COVID-19 is going to remain as the wild card for the global economy.
Remember, only one human disease, “Smallpox,” had ever been completely eradicated in 1979. Now it was possible to successfully eradicate Smallpox because of some unique characteristics of the virus. It lacked an animal reservoir. It had clear infective features, you know, marks on your face and so on, that made it easy to quickly recognize the disease in sufferers. It had a short period of infectiousness, and getting infected conferred natural immunity for life. Measles is an example of a disease that can never be eradicated fully, that it's endemic. We are familiar, of course, with our efforts to eradicate Polio. We have played the lead role in these efforts, while Polio Virus has been eradicated in all continents, except Asia. As of today, 2021, Afghanistan and Pakistan are the only two where the disease is still classified as endemic, with four cases of Wild Polio Virus (WPV) this whole year.
With COVID At this point, some 3.8 billion people have had at least one shot, and 2.8 billion are fully vaccinated. That means more than 7.3 billion doses have been administered worldwide. Add them to those who have survived the infection, and it looks as if over half the world's population boasts some degree of immunity to COVID. However, the global figure does mask sadly, vast disparities in vaccine access and vaccine distribution between wealthy and poor nations.
Of course, during this time, the Rotary was not idle. We have actively (participated), and thus the call of UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres to the G20 nations to assure vaccine equity worldwide. We also communicated in writing to the Presidents of the 2021 G20 Summit, Mario Draghi, Prime Minister of Italy, stating that while we appreciate the G20's Rome Declaration, that just by itself is not good enough. And that the G20 has an obligation to ensure that every country is in a position to obtain its required stock of COVID vaccines in a timely way. Unfortunately, it's still not happening.
We recently signed an MOU with GAVI. GAVI, as you know, is the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization, confirming a collaborative arrangement globally to further COVID-19 vaccine coverage through social realization advocacy. GAVI is a public and private sector vaccine Alliance. Co-leading COVAX as a worldwide initiative aimed at making sure every country has access to COVID-19 vaccines. They haven't succeeded yet. That's a different matter. Rotary and GAVI have come to an agreement in principle to work together towards the vision of “One World protected against COVID.” We have agreed that the current international vaccine access is uneven and mitigation of that gap is crucial. No country is safe, my friends, unless all the countries are safe, and only vaccinating the whole world will determine the course of this pandemic. The more people get vaccinated, the less transmission occurs in the community, reducing everyone's risk of infection.
In many countries, Rotarians could use the experience gained through our Polio efforts to support COVAX in the delivery of the vaccines in other ways. To begin with, COVAX has shortlisted nine countries to partner more actively. In this part of the world. It includes India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Sri Lanka, and then some countries in Africa to begin with. Recently, both foundation and Roche International have agreed to take a firm position in their outlook to COVID. We see the decision to vaccinate as a civic and humanitarian imperative.
We agreed that we were not a political organization. We are a service organization. This is the lens through which we will look at the world. Unlike in some countries, where depending on which party you belong to, they take a different view. We agree that vaccination is the path to ending the pandemic.
Rotary endorses and strongly encourages vaccination of all individuals. We ensure that RI staff at headquarters were required to be fully vaccinated by 10 October as a criterion for employment after the date. I'm pleased to tell you that currently, RI employee vaccination rates stand at over 99%. Every member of the Rotary International Board and every trustee of the Board of Trustees of the foundation are expected to be fully vaccinated and I think they have.
We agree that our efforts have included advocacy with the G20 and a proof-of-concept program with callbacks to leverage our frontline experience with polio eradication, to facilitate vaccine delivery in several low- and middle-income countries where Rotarians are active. We believe, we know that Rotarians can have an active role in this and they already are. While we know, many clubs are already deeply involved in COVID-19 prevention. We are working on additional strategies to multiply our collective efforts. We have realized that misinformation has become an “info-demic,” which hinders the fight against COVID-19. In line with our Four-Way Test, we are committed to providing our members with only science-based information, not rumors, not these “WhatsApp” stuff that goes around.
We agreed that those children for whom the vaccines are not currently available are at significant risk. The vaccination of adults is the best way to protect children who cannot be vaccinated. Pediatric admissions for COVID-19 are rising precipitously in areas of low vaccination then we need to take note. We agree that Rotary also salutes health care workers everywhere as they continue to provide lifesaving services. We appeal to clubs that local recognition of these heroes by each of our clubs can help to encourage them to continue the important work. The board is currently looking at a specially designated week early next year when clubs will be encouraged to recognize health workers across the world
Rotary Clubs are encouraged to redouble their efforts to support COVID-19 prevention and vaccination efforts. Vaccines have proven to be one of the greatest advances of modern medicine. The WHO estimates that vaccines save between two to 3 million lives each year. We estimate that the Polio vaccine has saved more than 19 million children from paralysis. What more proof do you want? Vaccines are safe, effective and are responsible for eliminating or controlling many other vaccine-preventable diseases such as smallpox, measles, rubella, and now even Ebola. And now, there is an opportunity to end the COVID 19 pandemic through vaccines.
The question one asks or is about to ask me is, when can all clubs start meeting physically? Whilst I am neither an expert modern fortune teller? We have to bear in mind that virus variants are carried through places where people gather in large numbers, particularly when strict pandemic protocols are not in place, like wearing masks and distancing. The CDC recently issued a warning that even fully vaccinated persons must take precautions and indeed we have seen what we call breakthrough illnesses, where the virus hits you in spite of being double vaccinated. According to WHO, in order to live with this virus and continue our daily lives. We need to take a vaccine plus approach which means in addition to your vaccines. It means mask-wearing, social distancing, ventilating in those spaces, and washing hands.
I certainly would discourage any large indoor event for sure, except depending on the number of participants in proportion to the room size. We have a large room with a small number of participants or a relatively small number of participants, and you’re reasonably safe. The famous Mayo Clinic's Vaccine Research Group says it is best to create small groups when going maskless indoors, even if all are vaccinated. This may change in a few months. But if he must have meetings, club, or district, I would suggest that we first consider the level of risk prior to our decision to do so. We should certainly avoid larger events and gatherings, particularly if these are held indoors. And if clubs do meet, they should ensure the room is well ventilated. Good ventilation, my friends, can help reduce viral particles in there. If you're indoors and around others, bring in fresh air by opening windows and doors if possible.
You know, during the Crimean War, Florence Nightingale settled on the principle that would later prove key to a legendary nursing career. You heard Florence Nightingale, of course, the importance of opening windows to ensure an inflow of fresh air. As reported since then, engineers have produced an array of high-tech electric ventilation systems. But some studies show what many have long suspected that simply opening a window might do a better job. And while we involve ourselves with COVID, never forget that polio eradication remains a top priority for Rotary. That's why we don't want to get involved with the purchase of vaccines. We can apply the lessons we have learned in fighting polio to efforts in response to the COVID 19 pandemic. We will agree that for the world, this has been a dark year. And we are yet in the middle of a destructive pandemic with no end in sight. But remember, the night is darkest just before dawn. So, let's invoke this too, shall, and I know it will pass. You know nature is immensely complex. It's impossible to tell whether anything that happens is good or bad. Because you never know what the consequences that follow will be. All we know is that with every action and reaction, there is an opportunity, a chance to live our values, express our desires and take action to improve the quality of our lives.
I was recently reading Fareed Zakaria’s recent book, where he referenced “Lawrence of Arabia.” In the movie, some of you are too young, but some of you remember in the movie, the role is played by Peter O'Toole. Lawrence has convinced a group of Arab tribes to mount a surprise attack on the Ottoman Empire, from whom they seek independence. Lawrence leads a band of these billowing warriors across the desert, approaching the Ottoman port of Aqaba from the rear. They cross the desert in the blistering heat, braving swirling sand storms.
At one point, they discovered that one of the Arab soldiers, Kasim, had fallen off his camel. Lawrence instantly decides that he must turn around and he must go for the lost man. Sherif Ali, the chief Arab leader, played in the movie by Omar Sharif, objects. One of his aides turns to Lawrence, saying, “Kasim’s time has come, “it is so written,” and Lawrence notches back, “nothing is written.” Then he turns around and ventures back searchers amidst the sands and cyclones and finds Kasim staggering about half dead. Lawrence brings Kasim back to the camp for a hero's welcome, and when Sherif Ali offers him water, Lawrence looks at him before punching his turret and calmly repeats, “nothing is written.”
In Lawrence of Arabia, the lesson about fate versus human agency gets a little more complicated, perhaps doesn't apply to us. You see, the night before the attack in October, the Arab tribes start quarreling bitterly over the murder committed by one tribesman against a member of another tribe. As an outsider, Lawrence offers to pass judgment and agrees to execute the murderer so that justice could be done by an impartial head, only to realize that the murderer is Kasim, the man whose life he has just saved in the desert. And yet, he walks up and calmly shoots six bullets into his chest. The lesson perhaps is that Kasim was destined to die. Lawrence had been able to save him in the desert, and in doing so, to give him a reprieve, but by his actions, Kasim threw away the chance for a different future.
So too, in our trying times, my friends, this ugly pandemic has created the possibility for change and reform. Rotary itself has changed in many ways. It has opened up a path to a new world, and it’s ours to take the opportunity or to squander it. Nothing is written. Let me leave you with that note, asking you to be safe and continue to have hope for yourself. Thank you!